Modelling Dengue Epidemics with Autoregressive Switching Markov Models (AR-HMM)
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this work, autoregressive switching-Markov models (ARHMM) are applied to the dengue fever epidemics (DF) in La Havana (Cuba). This technique allows to model time series which are controlled by some unobserved process and finite time lags. A first experiment with real data of dengue is performed in order to obtain the characterization of different stages of the epidemics. The aim of this work is to present a method which can give valuable information about how an efficient control strategy can be performed.
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تاریخ انتشار 2009